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JONES: Understatement: It’s a numbers game |
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Tuesday, 13 May 2008 |
There’s been the question all along about how watered down voting might be on one side or the other in the local primary election.
Understandably, no Democrat or Republican candidate considers his or her race any less important than another. No candidate wants to believe that his or her race will serve as the sacrificial lamb, as it were, with voters, who must choose either the Democrat or Republican primary, but not both.
Yet, as this primary unfolds and the voting chatter becomes more plentiful and meaningful, the more likely it appears that exactly such a scenario is occurring.
This observation may prove to be completely off base, you understand, but it appears that the Republican primary is poised to attract more Democrat crossover voters than vice versa because of the races being contested on the GOP side.
Maybe no one considers the crossover numbers particularly significant. I do. In fact, I find the numbers increasingly significant since we have learned that voter turnout is much better than predicted.
I have the utmost confidence in Saline County Clerk Freddy Burton’s ability to prognosticate prior to an election. He’s been in the business a while, and his predictions on turnout usually are accurate.
However, I never could feel right about his prediction of voter turnout as low as 13 to 16 percent for this primary election. I think the races being contested are too important to keep 84 to 87 percent of the county’s more than 55,000 registered voters on their rear ends.
Sure, voter apathy is a problem, and voter apathy has been an embarrassment to the political process in this county on a few occasions. But, we’re choosing a county judge, a Republican nominee for sheriff, two potential House of Representatives members and a pair of Circuit Court judges in this primary election.
How much more important do the ballots need to be for crying out loud?
I may not have given needed consideration to the crossover numbers before early voting opened last Monday. But, the more I hear people talk about how they voted or plan to vote, and hear them talk about how they rank the races in the proverbial pecking order, the more I’m inclined to believe that the Republican races are taking priority among voters.
Yes, even though Burton’s office says that the split among Democrat and Republican voters in the first week of early voting has been about 50-50. About all that tells us is that races in each primary are receiving attention.
The GOP side of the ledger seems top-heavy because of the races for county judge, sheriff and Arkansas House District 29. The races for judge and sheriff appear to be carrying the most weight.
I never could imagine why voters wouldn’t be placing paramount emphasis on the judge race since it is a winner-take-all affair. As we have noted repeatedly, either County Judge Lanny Fite or challenger Ann Sanders will be the next judge since there is no Democrat opposition in November.
Then again, just to be frank, I’m not hearing many voters express concern that Fite will receive a major challenge from Sanders. If that’s the case, some of those voters may turn their attention elsewhere, even though it’s a major mistake to take anything for granted.
So, is such a thing happened, where would that attention go? To the sheriff’s race, knowing that a fresh administration is just around the corner? Or would it be to one or both of the House races?
It’s difficult to know. It takes someone with considerably more political insight than I possess to sort it all out. But I’m not trying to present an educated or scientific analysis. I’m offering observations.
What I do know is that we must not overlook the importance of the circuit judge races, even though, for the purposes of any discussion about crossover voters, we can take these two contests out of the equation. These are nonpartisan positions; the candidates appear on both Democrat and Republican ballots.
The other thing I know is that a certain percentage of voters will not cross over under any circumstances. There are Democrats and Republicans alike who will support party candidates regardless of who is competing. It’s that old-line, narrow-minded thinking that these days begs but one question: How many will remain steadfastly loyal to party candidates or how many will recognize the importance of races that may require them to cross that dreaded party line?
It’s all interesting, and will serve for more detailed observations soon.
Oh, there is one thing I also know: With local voter turnout at a record pace already, relatively speaking, we should realize that the residents and taxpayers are the winners. The more people are involved in the political process, the more we all benefit, regardless of party affiliation.
• • • • •
GLAD TO SEE that Richard Abnernathy is remaining as Bryant superintendent. He’s good for that school district and good for this county.
He’s probably too chummy with the Bryant School Board members, but most superintendents end up chummy with board members. That’s not entirely a bad thing, but it does help redefine objectivity.
Frankly, I’m surprised he turned down the Fayetteville offer, and so are a lot of other people. That’s such a neat part of the state and the school district there is blessed with resources and potential.
The only other thing that surprises me is that in a letter to faculty and staff at Bryant, Abernathy said he was surprised at how much attention his courtship with Fayetteville received from the media.
That sounds good but I know Abernathy is not that naive. Otherwise, he would not have learned to maneuver as well as he does politically.
Whit Jones is editor of the Courier. His column appears periodically. Any opinions expressed are those of the writer.
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